Wierd Economy

GDP growth is solid. Inflation is nil. (In fact, it was -0.1% this month). Interest rates are still at historical lows, despite a series of hikes (yet these hikes are not directly mirrored in all of the lending markets).

It sounds like we should be having a boom, but we're not. Today's initial unemployment claims were up again, outpacing the expert's predictions. And the economy has failed to produce many jobs, with some months better than others, but none stellar. And the stock market is agnostic as well.

There are some other wierd factors, like long term treasuries being lower than shorter term rates. What is the bond market saying about this economy? Is this all caused by the deficit?

What's going on here?

My lay opinion is that our fiscal realignment in the last 5 years has produced an increasingly rentier based economy, which would at least explain the lagging job growth during a period of GDP growth.

For employers, this means, applying my hypothesis, that this should be a time when all HR decisions are given extra care, because jobs are still hard to come by, and people in desperate straits may look favorably at the chance to recover in a lawsuit.